MEXICO CITY (AP) 鈥 It鈥檚 her choice 鈥 but one on which the hopes of millions of Venezuelans fighting to restore their democracy depends.
Barred from running for office, opposition leader Mar铆a Corina Machado is facing pressure from foreign leaders and fellow government opponents to abandon her ahead of a March 25 candidate registration deadline and make space for a substitute to take on the entrenched incumbent, Nicol谩s Maduro.
It's an impossible choice that underlines Venezuela鈥檚 . The last election widely recognized as meeting international standards took place almost a decade ago, when the opposition swept control of the 好色tv Assembly in 2015. But the opposition's boycotting of subsequent races has only strengthened Maduro鈥檚 grip on power.
Machado, a former lawmaker, rose to the top of the opposition leadership in 2023, filling a void left when other leaders went into exile. Her courage and principled attack on government corruption and Maduro鈥檚 mismanagement of the oil-dependent economy to overwhelmingly vote for her in an October opposition primary that the government tried to outlaw.
Success made her a target though. In January, in defiance of an electoral agreement Maduro signed with an opposition coalition, which earned him , Venezuela's rubber-stamping high court .
Maduro鈥檚 government has since also accused Washington of conspiring to assassinate him, arrested more political opponents and expelled the staff of the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
Taken together, the actions indicate Maduro has no interest in a competitive race and is looking only to extend his decade-long rule, said Michael McKinley, who served as U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia and Peru.
鈥淲e鈥檙e no longer dealing with an imperfect electoral process,鈥 McKinley said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a complete shutdown of all meaningful challenges to Maduro. In that context, it鈥檚 hard to argue that the opposition participating in elections without Machado and with a token candidate somehow advances a democratic opening.鈥
Polling suggests that Venezuelans overwhelmingly want to go to the polls and would trounce Maduro if given half a chance. And while Machado is their preferred candidate, a majority of opposition supporters want her to yield to someone else rather than have the opposition essentially sit out the race in which Maduro will be seeking a third six-year term.
鈥淲e鈥檙e with Maria Corina until the end,鈥 retiree Sonia Alfonzo said, echoing Machado's campaign slogan of 鈥淗asta el final鈥 鈥 Until the end. 鈥淏ut if she can鈥檛 run, she must have an ace up her sleeve.鈥
Machado has repeatedly rejected the idea of renouncing her candidacy, but she has not explained her strategy to overcome the ban. Gerardo Blyde, who negotiated the opposition's electoral agreement with Maduro's representatives, told a radio station Friday 鈥渢hat there is still time鈥 for the government to rectify and 鈥渁llow our candidacy without obstructions.鈥
But other allies are already floating a plan B. Two-time opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles this week urged fellow Maduro opponents to get 鈥渁 sense of realism鈥 and rally behind an alternative. Capriles, who exited the primary as support for Machado increased during the campaign, asked them to put Venezuelans and 鈥渢he country above all else.鈥
The pressure is coming from outside Venezuela as well. (backslash)Brazil鈥檚 leftist president, Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva, recently held up his own inability to run for president in 2018 while he was fighting corruption charges from jail as an example for Machado to follow.
鈥淚nstead of crying, I appointed another candidate,鈥 said Lula, who was later cleared of criminal wrongdoing.
Machado's meteoric rise as opposition leader last year was aided by careful messaging that softened her image as an elitist hardliner and allowed her to connect with skeptics. But throughout 2023, ruling-party leaders made clear she would never face off with Maduro.
There has been bad blood for decades between Machado and the disciples of Maduro's mentor and predecessor, the late fiery leader Hugo Ch谩vez.
Machado, a free-market conservative, once dared to interrupt Ch谩vez as he gave a speech before the 好色tv Assembly, calling the expropriation of businesses theft. 鈥淎n eagle does not hunt a fly,鈥 he responded.
The Biden administration has tried to walk a fine line between expressing support for Machado 鈥 for years more closely aligned with Republicans in Washington 鈥 and keeping alive hopes for some sort of electoral participation.
A senior U.S. official said the Biden administration has not asked Machado to stand down and will respect whatever decision she makes. But the U.S. is stressing the need for the opposition to unite behind a common strategy, one that reflects the will of regular Venezuelans to cast ballots, said the official, who insisted on not being quoted by name to discuss the sensitive matter.
A key milestone in that delicate dance comes in April, when temporary sanctions relief that arose from the electoral agreement signed last year in Barbados expires and the White House must decide whether to reimpose restrictions blamed for a worsening humanitarian crisis that has to abandon the country.
鈥淎s imperfect as the elections will be, they represent a huge opportunity for Venezuelans to mobilize and express their voice in ways they haven鈥檛 for a decade,鈥 said Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at the Chatham House in London. The group this month organized two days of closed door discussions on Venezuela attended by U.S. officials, international diplomats, human rights activists and members of the opposition.
Maduro's government insists Machado's ban is a done deal that cannot be revisited. After officials said election day would be July 28 鈥 Ch谩vez's birthday 鈥 the government announced it would send invitations to international electoral observers like the European Union and the Carter Center, whose participation is part of the Barbados agreement. However, so far, the invitations haven't been sent.
Entrenched, authoritarian leaders sometimes overestimate their strength and lose even heavily skewed elections. That鈥檚 what happened in Nicaragua in 1990, when Sandinista rebel leader Daniel Ortega was defeated after a decade in power, as well when Chileans in a 1988 referendum ousted dictator Augusto Pinochet.
But those examples have less relevance in a world where democracy is on the defensive and the United States' ability to shape events is declining, said McKinley, the former U.S. ambassador.
He said it's more likely Maduro is looking for inspiration to the where Vladimir Putin is competing against a slate of candidates handpicked by the Kremlin, to dismantle Venezuela鈥檚 democracy even further.
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to think Maduro isn鈥檛 watching Putin鈥檚 electoral example and believes he can follow suit,鈥 he said.
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Goodman reported from Miami. Associated Press writer Jorge Rueda and videojournalist Juan Arraez, in Caracas, Venezuela, and writer Diane Jeantet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, contributed to this report.
