The message to NATO from President Vladimir Putin was simple and stark: Don't go too far in providing military support for Ukraine, or you'll risk a conflict with Russia that could quickly turn nuclear.
As the war in Ukraine , Putin declared he doesn鈥檛 need nuclear weapons to achieve his goals. But he also says it's wrong for the West to assume that Russia will never use them.
鈥淚t mustn鈥檛 be treated in a light, superficial way,鈥 Putin said in June, calls for using atomic weapons if it perceives a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Moscow鈥檚 nuclear messaging 鈥 coming as NATO allies move to shore up exhausted and 鈥 heralds what could become the most dangerous phase in the war.
Drills, threats and signals
with its tactical 鈥 or battlefield 鈥 nuclear weapons in southern Russia and with ally Belarus, where some were deployed in 2023. Russian Defense Ministry videos showed Iskander missile launchers, nuclear-capable warplanes and sea-launched missiles.
The Kremlin described the exercises as a response to the West pondering the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to use longer-range weapons for limited strikes on Russian territory.
鈥淩eliance on nuclear threats and signals is an enduring trend in Russia鈥檚 activities amid the ,鈥 said Heather Williams, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. 鈥淩ussian leadership may be assuming it has more at stake in Ukraine than NATO, and nuclear threats are one means of signaling its commitment to winning the war in the hopes of scaring off Western intervention.鈥
Ever since launching the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, Putin has repeatedly referred to Russia鈥檚 nuclear might to discourage Western intervention. The United States and NATO criticized the nuclear saber-rattling but said they haven't seen any changes in Russia's nuclear posture warranting a response.
After early setbacks in Ukraine, Putin said Moscow was prepared to use 鈥渁ll means鈥 to protect Russian territory, fueling fears he could turn to tactical nuclear weapons to halt Kyiv's advances. Putin later toned down his rhetoric after .
Amid Russia's recent military successes, Putin said Moscow doesn鈥檛 need nuclear weapons to win in Ukraine. Simultaneously, however, he warned that Kyiv's strikes on Russian soil with Western-supplied longer-range weapons would mark a major escalation because they would involve Western intelligence and military personnel 鈥 something the West denies.
鈥淩epresentatives of NATO members, particularly in small countries of Europe, should be aware of what they are playing with,鈥 he said, adding they could be mistaken to rely on U.S. protection if Russia strikes them.
鈥淭he constant escalation could lead to grave consequences,鈥 he said. 鈥淚f those grave consequences come to Europe, how will the U.S. act in view of our parity in strategic weapons? Hard to say. Do they want a global conflict?鈥
Aiming the 鈥榥uclear pistol鈥
In May, Russian radar facilities were attacked by Ukrainian drones. One damaged a radar in the southern Krasnodar region, according to satellite images. Another targeted a similar facility in the southern Urals, about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) east of the border.
Both are part of Russia鈥檚 early warning system to spot intercontinental ballistic missile launches thousands of kilometers (miles) away. Moscow and Washington rely on such systems to track each other鈥檚 launches.
Along with earlier Ukrainian raids on Russian nuclear-capable bomber bases, the radar strikes could qualify as triggers for atomic-weapons use under Moscow's nuclear doctrine. Russian hawks urged the Kremlin to respond forcefully.
At a June forum in St. Petersburg, Kremlin-connected foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov urged Putin to 鈥渁im a nuclear pistol at our Western adversaries鈥 to achieve victory in Ukraine.
Putin responded cautiously, saying he saw . At the same time, he indicated Moscow was pondering changes in its nuclear doctrine.
Amending the nuclear doctrine
Since the war began, hawks have urged a revision of the doctrine, which says Moscow could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional weapons that threatens 鈥渢he very existence鈥 of the Russian state. Some of them argue the threshold is too high, leaving the West with the impression that the Kremlin won't ever touch its nuclear arsenal.
Foreign affairs analyst Dmitri Trenin of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a Moscow think tank advising the Kremlin, urged modifying the doctrine to declare that Russia could use nuclear weapons first when 鈥渢he core national interests are at stake,鈥 like in Ukraine.
鈥淚t鈥檚 important to persuade the ruling elites in the U.S. and in the West as a whole that they won鈥檛 be able to stay comfortable and fully protected after provoking conflict with Russia,鈥 Trenin said.
Climbing the 鈥榣adder of escalation鈥
With the West allowing Ukraine to hit Russian territory, Putin threatened to respond by providing weapons to Western adversaries worldwide. He underscored the message in June by signing a , signaling Moscow could start arms deliveries to Pyongyang.
He also declared that Moscow would start producing intermediate-range missiles banned under a Cold War-era pact that Washington and Moscow scrapped in 2019. The Kremlin wouldn鈥檛 say where Moscow could deploy the new weapons that were prohibited by the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which outlawed ground-launched missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,410 miles).
Such nuclear-capable missiles are seen as particularly destabilizing because they can reach targets faster than ICBMs, leaving practically no time for decision-makers and raising the likelihood of a global nuclear war over a false launch warning.
Hawks urged Putin to move quickly up a 鈥渓adder of escalation鈥 to push the West to back off.
The exercise with battlefield nuclear weapons was one such move, Trenin said, while another could be an atomic test on Russia鈥檚 Arctic Novaya Zemlya archipelago. Putin has left the door open for resuming such tests, which are banned under a global pact that Russia has signed, although he noted "there is no need for that yet.鈥
Some Russian military experts said Moscow could declare a no-fly zone over the Black Sea to curb U.S. intelligence flights that help Ukraine strike targets in Russia. In late June, the against U.S. drones there.
Trenin and other experts said possible escalatory moves could include cyberattacks on U.S. and European infrastructure, conventional strikes on Western troops if any go to Ukraine, and attacks on military supply hubs for Kyiv on the territory of NATO members. U.S. military bases also could be targeted, they said.
At the top of the ladder, Russia could threaten nuclear strikes on NATO targets in Europe to 鈥渟ober up the enemy and force it into the talks,鈥 Trenin suggested.
鈥淎ctive nuclear deterrence means the possibility of using nuclear weapons first in the ongoing conflict 鈥 not necessarily on the battlefield and not on the territory of Ukraine,鈥 he said. 鈥淭he enemy must have no doubt: Russia won鈥檛 allow itself to be defeated or blocked from achieving its declared goals by keeping nuclear weapons out of the conflict.鈥
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