MUSCAT, Oman (AP) — Once again, some of the highest stakes in Middle East geopolitics will be discussed in this quiet coastal city without skyscrapers.
Here in Muscat, the capital of Oman nestled against the sheer stone heights of the Hajar Mountains, Iran and the United States will meet for for the first time since President Donald Trump began his second term.
No agreement is immediately likely, but the stakes of the negotiations couldn't be higher for these two nations . Trump repeatedly has threatened to unleash airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear program if a deal isn't reached. Iranian officials increasingly warn that they could pursue a nuclear weapon with their stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.
And at the center is Oman, one of the world's last sultanates on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula. Its unique history, people and proximity to Iran have made it indispensable for the West as it has held discussion after discussion for Iran. But these latest talks — in the Oval Office just days earlier — have put Oman firmly into a spotlight it otherwise seeks to avoid.
“The Omanis have a lot of experience when it comes to playing this back-channel role,” said Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO and founder of the Washington-based risk analysis firm Gulf State Analytics. “I think that right now in this day and age of Trump 2.0, the stakes are really high and it’s important for us to understand the value of Oman being a diplomatic bridge.”
‘Omanibalancing’ in an unsettled Mideast
, home to 5.2 million people across an arid country just larger than Italy, stands out among the Gulf Arab states. Its oil and gas wealth is marginal by comparison, and its citizens outnumber its population of foreign workers. Omanis can be found working normal jobs from taxi cabs to offices. And its people are Ibadi Muslims, a more liberal offshoot of Islam predating the Sunni-Shiite split.
They occupy a strategic location along the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil passes.
And Oman is a former empire whose seafaring rule once stretched all the way down to the island of Zanzibar off Africa. That history extends into how it deals with the wider world, said Marc J. O’Reilly, a history professor at Heidelberg University in Ohio.
It is a path O'Reilly referred to as “Omanibalancing” over 25 years ago — and one that still works today for the sultanate after the 2020 death of its longtime ruler and the installation of .
Oman is “the master of quiet diplomacy," O’Reilly said. “I think they are proud of that, the Omanis, they know that's their reputation.”
That has been tested in recent years, however. Oman maintains diplomatic ties to Yemen's Houthi rebels, now being . Oman's ties to Iran, cemented when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi sent troops in the 1970s to help put down the Dhofar Rebellion in the country, have been maintained since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
America has relied on Oman for years to negotiate with Iran, including secret talks under President Barack Obama that led to the 2015 nuclear deal Iran had with world powers.
“Certainly, I think they are, I think on the whole, very easy to deal with in a region where that is not the norm,” O'Reilly said.
The challenge ahead
This round of talks is unlike those that came before. The first challenge Oman faces is just how public they are. Muscat typically relies on discretion in how they handle diplomatic relations, a holdover from an earlier age of Gulf Arab rule.
Their neighbors today in comparison go relatively public with their diplomacy — like Qatar's role in negotiations with Afghanistan's Taliban, Saudi Arabia hosting the Russia-U.S. talks and the United Arab Emirates just mediating a Russia-U.S. prisoner swap. So far, Oman's state-run media, which dominates the sultanate, has remained silent about Saturday's talks.
“Oman typically prefers not making too many headlines,” Cafiero said. “Oman prefers diplomacy that’s not at the forefront of the news but is still effective.”
Then there's the expectations of the two sides. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintains the negotiations will begin as indirect talks, likely with Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi passing messages between Tehran and U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. Trump has maintained the talks will be direct. While not a major roadblock, it signals the challenge the negotiations face — particularly after years of indirect talks during the Biden administration went nowhere.
And while the U.S. side can offer sanctions relief for Iran's beleaguered economy, it remains unclear just how much Iran will be willing to concede. Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran could only maintain a small stockpile of uranium enriched to 3.67%. Today, Tehran's stockpile could allow it to build multiple nuclear weapons if it so chooses and it has some material enriched up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels. Judging from negotiations since Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the deal in 2018, Iran will likely ask to keep enriching uranium up to at least 20%.
One thing it won't do is give up its program entirely. That makes the proposal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of a so-called Libyan solution — “you go in, blow up the facilities, dismantle all the equipment, under American supervision, American execution” — unworkable.
Iranians including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have held up what ultimately happened to the late Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, who was killed with his own gun by rebels in the country's 2011 Arab Spring uprising, as a warning about what can happen when you trust the United States.
Already, a top adviser for Khamenei, Ali Shamkhani, has warned what could happen if the U.S. continues to threaten Tehran, including Iran expelling inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency and ending cooperation with the U.N. watchdog.
“The transfer of enriched material to a secure location could also be considered,” he added, opening the door again to Iran having secret, undeclared nuclear sites as it did when the crisis over its program began over 20 years ago.
But Majid Takht-e Ravanch, a deputy Iranian foreign minister, offered a more positive note Friday.
“If the American side refrains from raising unrelated issues and demands — and abandons threats and intimidation — there is a good opportunity to reach an agreement," Takht-e Ravanch said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.
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Associated Press writer Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.
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