NEW YORK (AP) 鈥 Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and scion of the storied Democratic dynasty, launched an independent presidential bid on Monday. Cornel West, a philosopher and Black social leader, made the same choice last week. And No Labels, a new political party, is intensifying candidate recruitment efforts.
While the politics are murky, the fresh frenzy of outsider candidates threatens to weaken both major parties as President Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump tighten their grip on their party鈥檚 presidential nominations.
There鈥檚 little concern that the independent or third-party candidates would actually win the presidency, but they could siphon support from the ultimate Democratic and Republican nominees. A heightened sense of concern is spreading especially among Democratic officials, who see the outsiders as a dangerous wildcard that harkens back to 2016, when Green Party nominee Jill Stein may have enabled Trump鈥檚 razor-thin victory by winning a small portion of the vote.
Those associated with the third-party efforts make no apologies for their work.
鈥淭he American people have been hungry for options. So, get ready,鈥 Stein said in an interview. 鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing is a voter rebellion. It鈥檚 been a long time coming.鈥
The rise of outsider candidates is an acute reminder of the intense volatility 鈥 and uncertainty 鈥 that hangs over the 2024 presidential election. Both of the major parties' most likely nominees 鈥 Biden and Trump 鈥 are extraordinarily unpopular. They鈥檙e running as the nation grapples with dangerous political divisions, economic anxiety and a deep desire for a new generation of leadership in Washington.
Much more activity is expected soon.
Stein said the Green Party will likely make an announcement about its presidential aspirations later this month. No Labels plans to make a formal decision about its presidential nominee in the spring.
And Kennedy formally launched an independent White House bid on Monday from inside Philadelphia鈥檚 Independence Hall.
鈥淚鈥檓 here to join you in making a new Declaration of Independence for our entire nation,鈥 Kennedy told hundreds of supporters on Monday. 鈥淲e declare independence from the cynical elites who betray our home and who amplify our divisions. And finally, we declare independence from the two political parties.鈥
The efforts face steep hurdles beyond winning more than a small fraction of voters. Simply qualifying for the ballot in every state will be a gargantuan task for outsider candidates without the benefit of existing political networks.
Jim Messina, who managed President Barack Obama鈥檚 2012 reelection campaign and is now a prominent Biden ally, didn鈥檛 downplay the possibility that the new candidates could weaken Biden鈥檚 coalition.
鈥淚 am a campaign manager so I am wired to plan for everything and panic about nothing, and the threat of a third party needs to be planned for seriously,鈥 Messina said.
No independent or third-party candidate has won an electoral vote in more than half a century, never mind the 270 needed to claim the presidency, but Messina said Biden and his team still need to be aggressive in warning voters about the threat that long-shot outsider candidates present.
鈥淵ou need to tell people that a vote for a candidate without a path to 270 means they鈥檙e lighting their ballot on fire,鈥 Messina said.
That may be easier said than done.
Gallup released new polling last week showing that 63% of U.S. adults currently agree with the statement that the Republican and Democratic parties do 鈥渟uch a poor job鈥 of representing the American people that 鈥渁 third major party is needed.鈥 It was among the highest figures since Gallup first asked the question in 2003.
Still, it鈥檚 far from certain that dissatisfied voters would ultimately cast a ballot next fall for Kennedy, West or a centrist No Labels candidate. Historically, polls showing that people want a third party to exist have rarely translated into substantial support for actual third-party candidates.
On paper, Kennedy may be most likely to draw support from Trump鈥檚 coalition given his embrace of anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and positive attention from far-right media.
In an interview, however, Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita said Democrats have much more to lose as independent and third-party candidates line up to run. That鈥檚 also the consensus of many Democratic officials.
鈥淭he most intriguing thing about this is, you have an incumbent president of the United States, and all of the elements of the third-party run are coming out of his coalition, not ours,鈥 LaCivita said.
The Trump and Biden campaigns are quick to note that it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for the political outsiders with no major funding sources or political infrastructure to get their name on the ballot in most states. No Labels is the big exception, having already secured a presidential ballot line in 11 states backed by an army of paid signature collectors.
In Arizona, alone, minor party candidates must collect more than 34,000 signatures to qualify for the general election ballot. Signatures must be collected in at least five different counties, and at least 10% of signatures must be from counties with populations of less than 500,000. An independent candidate must collect more than 43,000 signatures.
Michigan requires a minor party candidate to collect 44,619 signatures and independents to collect 12,000. And in Nevada, a minor party or independent candidate must collect 10,095 signatures to qualify for the ballot. At least 2,524 signatures must be collected in each of Nevada鈥檚 four congressional districts.
But an outsider candidate does not need to qualify for the ballot in every state to have a profound political impact. Just ask Brendan McPhillips, the state director for Biden鈥檚 Pennsylvania efforts in the last election.
Like many Democrats, he still blames Stein for helping Trump win the battleground state in 2016. While it鈥檚 impossible to say for sure, Trump carried Pennsylvania that year by just 44,000 votes, while Stein, an outspoken progressive, won nearly 50,000 votes in the state.
鈥淚t鈥檚 dangerous,鈥 McPhillips said of the independent and third-party candidates. 鈥淏ut I also think the Biden campaign is going to be smart about this. They鈥檙e going to make sure everybody knows the consequences of throwing your vote away on some egomaniac鈥檚 vanity project.鈥
___
This story has been corrected to show that no independent or third-party candidate has won an electoral vote in more than half a century, not that no independent or third-party candidate has ever won an electoral vote.
___
AP writers Ali Swanson in Philadelphia and Jonathan J. Cooper in Phoenix contributed.
