ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) — With weeks to go in New Jersey's high-stakes governor's race, key members of Democrats’ diverse coalition, including union and Black leaders, have been raising concerns — even when they’re not supposed to.
New Jersey state Democratic Chair Leroy Jones Jr. spoke on a recent Democratic ɫtv Committee conference call that was designed to project strength ahead of the fall elections. Yet he concluded with a warning.
“As a Black man, not just as a Black chair, we have to do better,” Jones said, referencing challenges messaging with the state’s Black community.
New Jersey voters on Nov. 4 that has drawn intense interest from both major political parties — and the White House. The race, along with an election for Virginia governor, will be seen as an early sign of how voters are feeling about President and Republicans’ leadership. Trump hopes that a victory from his Republican loyalist Jack Ciattarelli over Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill will send a resounding message to the nation that his GOP is as strong as ever.
And as Election Day nears, Trump and his allies are growing increasingly confident in their party’s outlook in New Jersey, even more so than in Virginia, which currently has a Republican governor. Trump, who has endorsed Ciattarelli, was optimistic about his bid in a social media post last week.
“Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor,” Trump wrote. A presidential visit before Election Day has not been ruled out, according to Trump’s allies.
Meanwhile, Democratic leaders are working to downplay expectations in the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who will finish his second term at the end of the year. They’re quick to note that Democrats have not won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in New Jersey since 1961.
New Jersey has reliably supported Democrats in presidential and U.S. Senate races but has swung between Republicans and Democrats during its odd-year gubernatorial elections. Four years ago, Murphy defeated Ciattarelli in a closer-than-expected race, winning by about 3 percentage points. A released Tuesday showed Sherrill with an 8 percentage point lead over Ciattarelli among likely voters.
“New Jersey governor’s races are always highly competitive,” said Meghan Meehan-Draper, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. “We’ve known all along that this would be a close race.”
Democrats' loosening grip on labor
Traditionally, organized labor has backed Democrats. That's not necessarily the case in the Trump era — a potential problem for Democrats in a state with one of the nation’s highest rates of labor union membership.
Abi Ortiz, a 61-year-old Teamsters local president in southern New Jersey, said he’s seen a definite shift among members toward the GOP in recent years.
“I thought I’d never see it,” said Ortiz, who started as a Teamster in 1987 as a UPS truck driver. “But now what we’re doing is we’re actually demanding the candidates say, ‘What are you going to do for the working class?’”
Democratic state Sen. John Burzichelli said Democrats’ loosening grip on workers is a red flag. The way through the problem, he said, is more conversations with members and voters.
“The national Democrat brand I don’t think is in a good place,” Burzichelli said. “Having the support of (union) leadership is one thing, but having the support of rank and file is another. We need to make sure they’re reminded that the state party is different from the national party brand.”
And as Democrats worry, there are signs that Ciattarelli is making inroads. Last week, he won the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police, the only major law enforcement union in the state to back a candidate so far. Ciattarelli is the first Republican to win the union’s backing in decades.
That’s even as Sherrill’s policies are largely aligned with the traditional interests of labor unions.
Sherrill recently was endorsed by the Teamsters council that represents the union’s southern New Jersey members. In a speech before members in Atlantic City last week, she said New Jersey would never become a “right-to-work” state on her watch and promised to protect collective bargaining rights, drawing a standing ovation from the ballroom full of members. A “right-to-work” law prohibits a company and a union from signing a contract that would require workers to pay dues or fees to the union that represents them.
In an interview, Sherrill said she was mindful of the importance of winning over not just union officials but rank-and-file members as well.
“I need labor unions to join me in this fight,” she said. “But it’s not enough to have leadership in the fight. I need the guys on the ground, and so that’s what my job is, once I have that support to continue to fight that fight on the ground.”
Is support from Black voters slipping?
Democrats are also concerned that an increasing number of Black voters, typically loyal Democrats, may vote for Ciattarelli or not show up to vote at all.
Sherrill hoped to shore up support among Black voters, in part, by choosing the Rev. Dale Caldwell, who is Black, as a running mate. Some local groups applauded the move. Others said sharing the ticket with a Black man may not be enough.
Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter, a Democrat from northern New Jersey who chairs the Legislative Black Caucus, said she’s seen Sherrill’s outreach to Black voters improving since the June primary.
She said Black voters are telling her they want to hear plans expanding access to higher education and for Black-owned businesses to make up a greater share of state procurement contracts.
“I think it’s critical she’s reaching as many people as possible,” Sumter said. “Folks are looking for their voices to be heard.”
Meanwhile, Ciattarelli casts his campaign as trying to reach most, if not all, of the state’s more than 500 towns, including Democratic-leaning areas with large Black populations. This month, for example, he visited Irvington, a town with a predominantly Black population that voted for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris over Trump by a 10-1 ratio.
Billy Prempeh, an Air Force veteran and recent Republican congressional candidate, said he talks to Black voters who are beginning to feel disillusioned with Democratic leadership.
He said that Sherrill’s message, which largely blames the state's problems on Trump, isn't connecting the same way it has in prior years for Democrats.
“Trump is the president of the United States, but he’s not making the day-to-day decisions of what happens here in the state of New Jersey,” Prempeh said.
“A lot of people that have voted lockstep with the Democratic Party, whether it was in opposition to President Trump or just because they’re traditional diehard Democrats, they’re now looking at it like, ‘Well, what exactly have the Democrats done to push the state forward?’”
