WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 Less than three weeks ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sat beside President Joe Biden and marveled that a 鈥渉istoric peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia鈥 seemed within reach 鈥 a diplomatic advance that he predicted could lead to lasting peace between the Israelis and Palestinians.
Biden was equally optimistic, telling Netanyahu during their meeting in New York, 鈥淚f you and I 鈥 10 years ago 鈥 were talking about normalization with Saudi Arabia, I think we鈥檇 look at each other like, 鈥榃ho鈥檚 been drinking what?鈥欌
Now, between Israel and the Palestinians after a devastating on Israeli soil is threatening to delay or derail the yearslong, country-by-country diplomatic push by the United States to improve relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
The so-called normalization push, which began under former President Donald Trump's administration and was branded as , is an ambitious effort to reshape the region and boost Israel鈥檚 standing in historic ways. But critics have warned that it skips past Palestinian demands for statehood.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Hamas attacks may have been driven in part by a desire to scuttle the United States' most ambitious part of the initiative: the sealing of between rivals Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Middle East's two greatest powers share a common enemy in Iran, a generous military and financial sponsor of Hamas.
Such a pact between Jerusalem and Riyadh would be a legacy-defining achievement for Biden, Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It's one that could pave the way for even more Arab and Muslim-majority nations to abandon their rejection of Israel since its 1948 founding in lands long inhabited by Palestinians. Under Trump, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco all signed on to normalization agreements with Israel.
But the startling attack by Hamas 鈥 and much of to it 鈥 has also raised new questions about whether Palestinian ambitions for sovereignty can be put aside while the U.S. tries to help Israel move ahead with improving relations with the rest of its Middle East neighbors.
With Netanyahu vowing to turn all Hamas hideouts in Gaza into rubble, the region is now bracing for and an expansive military operation by Israel. Biden in an address Tuesday ."
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to see a rather significant operation from air, land and sea that costs many, many, many lives," said Steven Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "I think this dynamic of normalization will likely slow down or come to a halt, at least for a period of time.鈥
The attacks were a shock to American, Israeli and Saudis officials, who all were riding high on the prospect that an Israeli-Saudi agreement was starting to come into focus.
Netanyahu, in a CNN interview last month, called the potential pact for the region. The Saudi crown prince also noted the steady progress, telling Fox News Channel,
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan noted at a recent event hosted by The Atlantic that challenges in the Mideast remained, but the amount of time he was spending on crisis and conflict in the region compared with his recent predecessors was "significantly reduced.鈥
鈥淭he Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades," Sullivan said.
In a matter of days, that optimism has vanished.
Social media showed crowds take to the streets with Palestinian flags in Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait and elsewhere in the hours after the Hamas attack. A policeman in Egypt鈥檚 coastal city of Alexandria , killing two Israelis and one Egyptian.
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry in a statement soon after the attacks did not condemn Hamas. Instead, the ministry noted that it had that Israel's 鈥渙ccupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations鈥 led to this moment.
White House 好色tv Security Council spokesman John Kirby declined to comment on the Saudi response.
鈥淲e still believe that normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is not only good for the people of those two nations but for the American people and for everybody else in the region, and we have every intention to continue to encourage a process where normalization can occur,鈥 Kirby said.
Yousef Munayyer, who heads the Palestine-Israel program at the Arab Center, a Washington think tank, said the Saudis in their statement were reminding the administration that 鈥渨e鈥檝e been telling you guys over and over again that if you ignore the Palestine issue the region鈥檚 going to explode. And I think there鈥檚 just been a tremendous amount of hubris on the part of the Biden administration thinking they could do that."
To be certain, Biden and U.S. officials have privately made clear to Netanyahu that any deal needed to include significant concessions for Palestinians, although members of Netanyahu鈥檚 far-right coalition have made clear that an independent Palestinian state is not something they鈥檇 abide.
The Saudis had said they, too, expected Israel to make concessions. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said 鈥渢here is no other way鈥 to solve the conflict than by establishing a Palestinian state.
Other allies in the region had also underscored that Palestinian concerns could not be overlooked.
King Abdullah II of Jordan, whose country in the early 1990s became the second Arab nation after Egypt to sign a peace deal with Israel, told a global summit last month that the prospect of a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel offered promise for the Middle East but no guarantee of stability in itself.
鈥淭his belief, by some in the region, that you can parachute over Palestine, deal with the Arabs and work your way back 鈥 that does not work,鈥 the Jordanian king said then. 鈥淎nd even those countries that have Abraham Accords with Israel have difficulty moving publicly on those issues when Israelis and Palestinians are dying. So unless we solve this problem, there will never be a true peace.鈥
U.S. officials say they intend to press ahead, but they also acknowledge efforts are unlikely to bear fruit while there is an active conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. The State Department announced Tuesday that Blinken will travel to Israel and Jordan Wednesday through Friday to consult with senior officials.
Analysts note that the Saudis have reason not to walk away from efforts at forging a normalization deal.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that in the long term bin Salman is looking to diversify the oil-rich kingdom's economy and strengthen its security. As part of any pact, Saudi Arabia is pushing Biden for a nuclear cooperation deal and defense guarantees from the U.S.
鈥淗e needs normalization and will continue to move forward,鈥 Dubowitz predicted. Of the crown prince, Dubowitz added, "the Saudis had better be careful because they are playing with fire in Washington."
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Associated Press writers Matthew Lee and Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.
