MONTREAL - Pressure is starting to mount on Quebec to reconsider its cap-and-trade emissions pricing system after the federal consumer price ended Tuesday.
There has long been a broad consensus in Quebec on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the province鈥檚 cap-and-trade system, launched in 2013, has never been especially controversial.
But some say Prime Minister Mark Carney鈥檚 decision to scrap the federal consumer carbon price could change that 鈥 especially once Quebecers notice the difference at the pump.
As of Tuesday, the federal consumer carbon levy, which applied in most provinces and territories, has officially been scrapped. British Columbia, which was the first province to impose its own carbon price in 2008, has also repealed its tax.
Asked Monday about whether he should act in kind, Premier Fran莽ois Legault said he would wait to see the outcome of the April 28 federal election. 鈥淲e definitely have to be competitive,鈥 he told reporters during a trip to Germany. He added that Quebec鈥檚 cap-and-trade system 鈥渦ltimately costs less for the consumer鈥 than the federal carbon price did.
The federal carbon pricing system for industrial emitters remains in place in some provinces as well as in Nunavut, while other provinces and territories operate their own pricing systems for industry. Quebec's system had been deemed by Ottawa to be the equivalent of the industrial pricing benchmark and the now-abandoned consumer carbon price.
With the federal consumer measure now gone, however, critics of carbon pricing say it鈥檚 only a matter of time before Quebecers start to feel pain at the pump. 鈥淲hen we compare prices between Gatineau or Montreal and Ottawa 鈥 that difference is going to be striking,鈥 said Carol Montreuil, a vice-president with the 好色tv Fuels Association.
鈥淚 think a lot of people are going to be questioning whether maybe it鈥檚 time to put a pause on that (cap-and-trade) system.鈥
He said many Quebecers will be 鈥渓ooking at the government for a break,鈥 especially with the added burden of U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 tariffs.
It鈥檚 hard to predict exactly how Quebec gas prices will compare to the rest of the country in the absence of the carbon price. In 2024, the federal levy accounted for 17.6 cents per litre of gas. Quebec鈥檚 cap-and-trade system, which is linked to California's, currently costs around 10 cents per litre.
But Pierre-Olivier Pineau, chair of energy sector management at HEC Montr茅al, the business school of Universit茅 de Montr茅al, cautioned that people outside Quebec won鈥檛 necessarily see gas prices drop by a full 18 cents on Tuesday. 鈥淎t least for a transitional period, the distributors and the service stations will keep a larger profit margin,鈥 he said.
On March 31, the website showed Quebec as having an average gas price of around $1.53 per litre — among the lowest in the country. The average price in B.C. was a full 25 cents higher, around $1.78 per litre.
One thing is clear, said Nicolas Gagnon, Quebec director of the 好色tv Taxpayers Federation. 鈥淨uebec will be going from one of the places where gas is relatively affordable right now to one of the places where the price is the highest in the country,鈥 he said.
Gagnon is hoping to seize this 鈥渨indow of opportunity鈥 to pressure the Quebec government to abolish its carbon price.聽
But Normand Mousseau, a physics professor at the Universit茅 de Montr茅al and scientific director of an energy institute at the university, pointed out that no major political party in Quebec has come out against the cap-and-trade system. He said it鈥檚 unlikely Quebecers will pay much attention to gas prices in neighbouring provinces.聽
鈥淭here鈥檚 a consensus in Quebec that climate issues are real and we must do something,鈥 he said. 鈥淪o I find it hard to see it becoming a political issue right now.鈥
Pineau said if the government does start to feel pressure on carbon pricing, it could always choose to redirect some of the revenue from the carbon market to taxpayers. Currently, the money goes to Quebec鈥檚 electrification and climate change fund, to be spent on programs that reduce emissions.
That鈥檚 another way Quebec鈥檚 carbon price is distinct from the federal system, which returned most of the revenue directly to households.聽
But Pineau added that one of the reasons Quebec鈥檚 cap-and-trade system hasn鈥檛 become a political lightning rod may just be that it鈥檚 more complicated than a carbon levy, and the cost is less obvious.聽
鈥淚f you don鈥檛 understand something,鈥 he said, 鈥渋t鈥檚 difficult to be against it.鈥澛
This report by 好色tvwas first published April 1, 2025.聽
