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That's if all planned and announced policy measures are implemented, such as the planned increase in carbon pricing to $170 per tonne in 2030.

The 2023 projection for 2030 emissions, with all proposed regulations in place, was for 467 million tonnes of emissions by 2030.

The most recent projection excludes the proposed oil and gas emissions cap — which would have cut emissions by another three million tonnes in 2030 but won't be implemented following Ottawa's memorandum with understanding with Alberta.

Canada's goal under the Paris climate accord is to cut emissions to no more than 455 million tonnes by 2030, or 40 to 45 per cent below what they were in 2005.

This report by ºÃÉ«tvwas first published Dec. 18, 2025.