OTTAWA - Labour experts say another postal service strike is unlikely after unionized Canada Post workers rejected their employer's latest round of offers in a forced vote and the parties mull their next steps.
The ºÃÉ«tv Union of Postal Workers said Friday that the roughly 55,000 members represented by the union shot down the Canada Post's latest proposal, which would've seen wage hikes of about 13 per cent over four years and restructuring to add part-time workers to the deal.
Some 68.5 per cent of urban mail carriers who voted were against the deal, while their rural and suburban colleagues were 69.4 per cent against.
Adam King, assistant professor in the labour studies program at the University of Manitoba, said the forced ratification vote ordered by the federal government and administered by the Canada Industrial Relations Board was a "distraction."
"Hopefully, at the end of the day, we see an agreement reached at the table — where it should have been in the beginning," he said in an interview.
"Canada Post management is really going to have to put something on the table that the union actually thinks members will accept."
Negotiations for a new collective agreement have been ongoing for more than a year and a half. The federal government asked CIRB to step in and scuttle a holiday season postal strike late last year, but the parties remain at an impasse.
The Crown corporation requested Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu send its most recent proposals from late May — calling them the "final offers" — to a forced vote from workers.
Canada Post said in a statement Friday that it was "disappointed" in the vote results and that it was weighing its next steps.
CUPW said in a bulletin to members last week that its negotiators are ready to head back to the bargaining table.
A national ban on overtime work, in place since CUPW entered a strike position in late May, will continue in the meantime.
King acknowledged that while the vote didn't go in Canada Post's favour, it wasn't a "resounding" rejection, with more than 30 per cent of voters coming out in favour of the deals as presented.
Larry Savage, professor in the department of labour studies at Brock University, said that apparent division in the ranks of CUPW would make it difficult to get members on a picket line.
"Even if you could effectively organize a strike, it's not obvious to me that it would produce the results the union's looking for," Savage said in an interview.
Before Hajdu sent Canada Post's offers to a vote, she had asked the parties to come to terms for binding arbitration to put an end to the dispute.
CUPW was broadly in favour of sending talks to arbitration but Canada Post pushed back, arguing it would tie negotiations up in a lengthy process.
Canada Post has warned that uncertainty around the fate of contract talks continues to cost the struggling postal service millions of dollars in business each day as customers shift to competitors.
The Crown corporation's financial woes have been well-documented throughout the talks. An Industrial Inquiry Commission report from Commissioner William Kaplan earlier this year found the postal service was effectively bankrupt and needed substantial reforms to remain afloat.
But King said arbitrators tend to be "conservative" in bringing parties to a middle ground and are unlikely to make the kinds of sweeping, structural changes Canada Post is looking for in a new deal.
Savage agreed that "binding arbitration is not actually a long-term solution to the problems at Canada Post."
"I think that management's forced final vote was a gamble and it blew up in their faces, but they still hold cards," he said.
Canada Post could unilaterally impose new contract terms and "dare the union to strike," Savage said, or could start laying off workers as its business falters.
"Both of those strategies would put tremendous pressure on the union to reach an agreement," he said.
"The danger, of course, for Canada Post is that its aggressive tactics thus far have seemingly only driven the parties further apart."
Hajdu said in a statement Friday that the federal government expects the parties to get back to the negotiating table and find a resolution "as soon as possible."
Given the financial struggles mentioned in the report, Savage said he expects the federal government will look to restructure Canada Post's mandate after the current labour dispute wraps up.
That could see, as suggested in Kaplan's report, a further expansion of community mailboxes or an end to daily door-to-door delivery.
In that context, Savage said the negotiations are less about which side wins the day and more about "who will survive long-term."
"There is a storm brewing for both Canada Post's management and the union. And I think that getting over this hump is important, but I think that it pales in comparison to what's coming," he said.
This report by ºÃÉ«tvwas first published Aug. 5, 2025.
