PRESCOTT, Ariz. (AP) — From the southwestern U.S. to Minnesota, Iowa and even parts of New Jersey, it seemed that winter never materialized.
Many communities marked their driest winters on record, snowpack was nearly nonexistent in some spots, and vegetation remains tinder dry -- all ingredients for elevated risks.
More than 1,000 firefighters and fire managers recently participated in an annual wildfire academy in Arizona, where training covered everything from air operations to cutting back brush with chain saws and building fire lines. Academy officials say there is a consensus that crews will be busy as forecasts call for more warm and dry weather, particularly for the Southwest.
The lack of moisture and warm temperatures can combine to increase the rate of spread and intensity of fire, said Roy Hall, the prescribed fire officer for the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management. He says it has been dry in his state for months.
“We would be remiss to not acknowledge that changes how we might see fire behavior come out of the blocks at the beginning and through fire season,” he said.
How dry has it been?
Experts with NOAA’s ɫtv Centers for Environmental Information reported in early March that total winter precipitation in the U.S. was just shy of 6 inches (15.24 centimeters) — or nearly an inch (2.54 centimeters) below average. The period of December through the end of February — what forecasters consider the meteorological winter — ranked the third driest on record.
Flagstaff, nestled in the mountains south of the Grand Canyon, has long been on the list of quick escapes for desert dwellers looking to build snowmen or go sledding. The northern Arizona city finished the winter period with a 50-inch (1.27 meter) snowfall deficit. A major storm hit the area in mid-March, forcing the closure of Interstate 40 and stranding motorists for hours. It wasn't enough to erase the shortfall.
In New Mexico, there were at least 17 sites that marked either their driest winters on record or tied previous records. Albuquerque set a new low by logging just 0.12 inches (0.30 centimeters) of precipitation over a three-month period.
“The tap just turned off and the drought conditions have been proceeding,” Andrew Mangham, a senior hydrologist with the ɫtv Weather Service in Albuquerque, said during a recent call with state and federal drought experts.
What does that mean for wildfire conditions?
Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and other parts the Midwest already have had their share of red flag warnings — when low humidity couples with windy, warm weather to heighten wildfire risks. The danger materialized in mid-March in , where fires destroyed hundreds of homes. Crews in New Jersey and also battled flames amid dry conditions.
In the West, land managers and firefighting forces are concerned that without adequate snowpack in many mountain ranges, there's less moisture to keep fires from ballooning into fast-moving conflagrations.
April 1 typically marks the peak of the snowpack, but forecasters say many areas already are melting out. Strong spring winds that deposit dust onto the snowpack help to speed up the process.
Even southern Alaska is experiencing a snow drought at lower elevations, according to the ɫtv Integrated Drought Information System. The Anchorage airport recorded its driest February on record, while large areas in southwest Alaska and low elevations in the south-central part were nearly snow-free as of March 1.
Recent storms , pushing snowpack levels there to just shy of average. But most of the southern region is .
A new was released Tuesday, showing above-normal significant fire potential from southeast Arizona into New Mexico, West Texas and Oklahoma. There is also above-normal fire potential forecast for southern Alaska along with parts of the southern Appalachians to the coast and down to Florida.
Come June, California will join the list again. In January, there torched more urban area than any other fire in that state since at least the mid-1980s.
How are communities dealing with the threat?
Seeing flames race through Los Angeles earlier this year prompted municipal leaders throughout the West to host community meetings to raise awareness, including in New Mexico's San Juan County.
The Four Corners region — where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah meet — is among those on the radar for high fire potential given the unfavorable conditions. Firefighters in San Juan County responded to 25 bushfires in the first 27 days of March and two more were reported on Friday, said county spokesperson Devin Neeley.
In Arizona, the Phoenix Fire Department have warned the mayor and city councilors about increasing risks. They have a plan for surging department resources to help contain fires before they escalate, particularly in areas where urban development intersects with wildland environments.
In neighboring Scottsdale, Mayor Lisa Borowsky recently floated the idea of creating a volunteer brigade to bolster wildfire prevention, pointing to invasive species and overgrown vegetation within the McDowell Sonoran Preserve that could pose risks. A fire department crew has been clearing and trimming brush along roadways.
Christopher Reed, a fire prevention captain with the Arizona forestry department, said some people think of wildfire as a “macro problem” that involves vast landscapes beyond their suburban borders. He said people should prepare on a micro level, ensuring their own homes are defensible before it's too late.
“We always say Day 1 of firefighting is now,” Reed said.
