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“The affected segment has been isolated, and operations and containment resources have been mobilized to site,” the company said. “Our primary focus right now is the safety of on-site personnel and mitigating risk to the environment.”

The pipeline transported an average 624,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. It stretches 4,327 kilometres from Hardisty, Alta., to Texas.

The impact on ��ɫtv crude producers will depend on how long the outage lasts, said Randy Ollenberger, head of oil and gas research at BMO Capital Markets. 

"At this point, it's really having minimal impact on heavy oil pricing," he said. 

Storage tanks in Hardisty, southeast of Edmonton, have a lot of room to spare, and oil can be diverted there until Keystone is back up and running. Inventories had been drawn down pre-emptively ahead of possible U.S. tariffs, Ollenberger said. 

"As long as we don't have Keystone down so long that storage tanks start to fill up to capacity, it may not have much impact on the market."

Prices at the gas pump could rise in the coming days in the U.S. 

The pipeline’s shutdown could quickly lead to higher gasoline prices in the Midwest, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice-president for energy and innovation at the University of Houston. 

It will raise prices at the pump likely within one or two days, but will have a greater impact on diesel and jet fuel, Krishnamoorti said. The Keystone pipeline transports a large amount of a unique, heavy crude that only is available from limited sources, he said.

“The refineries run on blends of crude so that they can get the product line that they want to deliver, whether it is gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc., and not having the supply of heavy crude is going to tilt their ability to make diesel and jet fuel," he said. “They will make less of diesel and jet fuel when they have less of the heavy crude.”

Higher diesel costs could lead to grocery price increases because diesel trucks transport those products, he said.

The lead petroleum analyst at gasoline price tracker GasBuddy, Patrick De Haan, said that typically refineries have at least a few days' supply of crude oil on hand that will help insulate them from immediate impacts from the shutdown. But if the pipeline is shut for more than a few days or a week it could become problematic.

He said some refineries in the Great Lakes region are also served by other pipelines run by Enbridge.

The pipeline was shut down within two minutes of a 'bang'

It wasn't clear what caused the rupture of the underground pipeline or the amount of crude oil released into the field. An employee working at the site near Fort Ransom heard a “mechanical bang” and shut down the pipeline within about two minutes, said Bill Suess, spill investigation program manager with the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality.

Oil surfaced about 270 metres south of a pump station in a field and emergency personnel responded, Suess said.

No people or structures were affected by the spill, he said. A nearby stream that only flows during part of the year was not affected but was blocked off and isolated as a precaution, he said. The Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is sending a team to investigate the cause of the leak.

Fort Ransom, a city of fewer than 100 people, is in a hilly, forested area of southeastern North Dakota known for scenic views and outdoor recreation. A state park and hiking trails are nearby.

It's unclear at what rate the 80-centimetre pipeline was flowing, but even at two minutes “it's going to have a fairly good volume,” Suess said. “But ... we've had much, much bigger spills,” including one involving the same pipeline a few years ago in , he said.

“I don't think it's going to be that huge,” Suess said.

The pipeline has a history of past ruptures

The Keystone Pipeline was constructed in 2010 at a cost of $5.2 billion and carries crude oil across Saskatchewan and Manitoba through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri to refineries in Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas. Though the pipeline was constructed by TC Energy, it is now managed by South Bow as of 2024.

A proposed extension to the pipeline called Keystone XL would have transported crude oil to refineries on the Gulf Coast, but it was ultimately after years of protests from environmental activists and Indigenous communities over environmental concerns.

After a spill, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is responsible for investigating the root cause of the issue and any lack of compliance. The agency, which regulates liquid and natural gas pipelines, lost several senior-level executives earlier this year as part of President Donald Trump’s federal cuts.

PHMSA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Bill Caram, executive director at industry watchdog Pipeline Safety Trust, said the organization already was “an under-resourced, underfunded agency.”

“To lose anyone will have an impact on safety,” he said.

After the last major Keystone in December 2022, sections of the pipeline was offline for a little over three weeks before it resumed operating at a lower pressure.

That spill of nearly 13,000 barrels of oil flowed into a creek traversing a pasture. the bend in the pipeline at the site had been “overstressed” since being installed in 2010, likely because of construction activity altering the land around the pipe. a faulty weld in the line's bend caused a crack that exacerbated over time.

The Pipeline Safety Trust said this latest leak adds to the troubled history of the Keystone pipeline, which has had 13 significant incidents in the 15 years it has been operating.

— With files from Lauren Krugel in Calgary

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