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African carriers were already paying about 17% more for jet fuel than the global average before the Iran war, according to AFRAA. The new price pressures are adding to already thin margins across the sector.

“The impact is dire and a major shock for our members,” AFRAA Secretary-General Abderahmane Berthe told The Associated Press. “Fuel represents between 30% and 40% of airlines’ operating costs. Any increase directly affects their balance sheets.”

The aviation industry is closely watching a key global energy corridor through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and fuel flowed before Iran effectively closed it for shipping at the start of the war in February.

For African airlines, the effects are amplified by structural constraints, including higher procurement costs and a weaker ability to absorb shocks.

Berthe said some carriers have introduced fuel surcharges, but most cannot pass on the full increase to passengers, forcing them to absorb losses.

“They cannot pass these costs to passengers as this will affect demand,” he said.

Supply disruptions have also raised concerns at major hubs including Nairobi, Kenya, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where consistent jet fuel availability is critical to regional and international operations, Berthe said.

Some airlines have already begun adjusting networks, cutting frequencies and reviewing routes to manage rising costs and fuel uncertainty, he said.

The crisis has renewed calls for Africa to strengthen domestic refining capacity and reduce reliance on imported jet fuel.

“We need African solutions,” Berthe said. “Many African countries produce oil, but we still depend on non-African suppliers for refined jet fuel.”

Attention is increasingly turning to projects such as which is expected to play a growing role in supplying refined fuel across the region, including to countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia and South Africa.

“We have seen hubs like Addis (Ababa) turning to Dangote for supply,” Berthe said. “This is expected to ease pressure on fuel supply chains during this period.”

Despite the pressures, demand for air travel in Africa remains strong. AFRAA projects passenger growth of about 6% annually, outpacing many global markets.

But Berthe warned that sustained shocks could weigh heavily on profitability and connectivity.

“If this continues, the impact on African airlines will be very severe,” he said. “If Africa wants a resilient aviation sector, it must secure its own fuel future.”

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