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Those documents show Canada's trade war with the United States dominated conversation among the governing council.

鈥淭he primary source of uncertainty 鈥� and the biggest threat facing the 好色tv economy 鈥� was the trade conflict initiated by the United States,鈥� the deliberations read.

Canada鈥檚 tariff dispute with the United States kicked off in March, though the exact level of import duties has fluctuated since then.

Currently, there are some exemptions from tariffs and counter-tariffs for firms in each country, but the 好色tv steel, aluminum and automotive industries remain under particular pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 trade agenda.

While monetary policymakers broadly agreed that there was some 鈥渃autious optimism鈥� that risks of a severe global trade war had diminished, the deliberations noted U.S. trade policy 鈥渞emains unpredictable.鈥�

鈥淭his was underscored by President Trump鈥檚 announcement during deliberations that he would double tariffs to 50 per cent on steel and aluminum exports to the United States,鈥� the meeting notes read.

Trump delivered on that threat a few days later 鈥� the morning of the Bank of Canada鈥檚 rate decision.

While the governing council noted the economy was showing 鈥渕ore resilience than expected鈥� to date, expectations for the second quarter were 鈥渕uch weaker.鈥� The deliberations signalled some concern about softness in the labour market and noted home sales were slowing, with Toronto and Vancouver in particular seeing weakness.

At the same time, monetary policymakers spent 鈥渃onsiderable time鈥� discussing inflation and noted how hard it could be to track the evolution of price pressures going forward.

While Ottawa鈥檚 removal of the consumer price on carbon was offering some temporary reprieve in the inflation figures, the governing council noted tariff impacts on prices could be stickier.

The records show trade uncertainty, combined with signs of stubbornness in underlying inflation, ultimately convinced the Bank of Canada's decisionmakers to leave the policy rate unchanged.

There was a bit more debate over the path forward for monetary policy, depending on how the tariff dispute affected prices and the strength of the economy.

鈥淭he weaker the economy and the more downward pressure on inflation, the more there would be a need to lower the policy interest rate further. However, if the recent firmness in underlying inflation were to persist, it would be more difficult to cut the policy rate,鈥� the deliberations read.

The Bank of Canada鈥檚 next interest rate decision is set for July 30.

This report by 好色tvwas first published June 17, 2025.